The means for arriving at the predictions are the same ones used by Ken Pomeroy (the basis for which is a fantastic book by Dean Oliver - Basketball on Paper). If you have an deeper interest in how efficiency ratings are calculated and how, in the aggregate, they can be incredibly useful in predicting game outcomes, I would highly recommend purchasing Oliver's book, as I won't be getting into the mechanics in this piece.
At the end of this piece, I've posted the results of the simulations for Ivy League wins and Ivy finish for each of the league's eight teams based on their performance thus far this season.
First, however, let's play Fact or Fiction with some of the widely debated topics in Ivy League circles.
Issue No. 1 - The Ivy League champion will most likely have no fewer than three losses (11-3 or worse).
FICTION
I know. It surprised me too, especially since the current projected Ivy leader (Harvard) has an average of 11.1 wins and 2.9 losses.
According to the numbers, however, the Ivy League champion will finish 12-2, 32 percent of the time and 11-3, 31 percent of the time. For those interesting in the other odds: 13-1 happens 16 percent of the time, 14-0, 4 percent of the time, 10-4, 15 percent of the time and 9-5 just 2 percent of the time.
Issue No. 2 - We are more likely than average to see an Ivy playoff for the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
FACT
This one isn't much of a surprise on the surface. Rather, the interesting part is that it isn't all that likely still, even though the teams are ostensibly more clumped together than they have ever been. A playoff only happens in about 19 percent of simulations and only 2.5 percent involve more than two teams. So the hopes for a massive three- or four-team tournament-style playoff are very much pie-in-the-sky.
Issue No. 3 - It's really anybody's race at this point.
FICTION
This one's a little more controversial given the divide between fandom and the objective analysis fields, but the numbers do not bear out this claim.
Harvard is currently 77 percent to win a share of the title and 60 percent to win it outright. Princeton is 32 percent and 17 percent, respectively. The next best is Cornell at six percent and just two percent to win the league outright.
The simulations are fluid as the teams' improve and decline as the year goes on, but for now, the two-horse race is a prohibitive favorite.
Issue No. 4 - After being decimated by graduation losses last year, it will be awhile before the league is ever as strong again.
FICTION
The Ivies might not see the Sweet 16 anytime soon, but top-to-bottom, this year's edition of the league has been much stronger than the last.
The average weighted pythagorean win percentage for league teams is hovering around .4300, which would rank around 14th this season, eight spots higher than last season. The Ivies don't have a team as powerful as Cornell, but also only have one likely 300 or worse team instead of three last year. There are also as many as six teams that could crack the Top 200 and two that are trending toward No. 100.
It's that strength in the middle that has the league in position to post an above .500 non-conference record for the first time in recent history.
Issue No. 5 - The Ivy League representative could, conceptually, land on the 12 line like Cornell last year.
FACT
This obviously relies on a bunch of factors, but either Harvard would have to split with UConn and Boston College or Princeton would have to run the table non-conference and then would probably have to go 13-1 in league play. Even then, the Ivies would have to hang around the teens in the RPI and get a lot of help during the conference tournaments.
Without more than the usual number of upsets and without an Ivy team catching fire, it's most likely at this point that the league representative lands on the 14 or 15 line at this point.
IVY WIN PROJECTIONS
| Brown | 3-11 | 11.8% |
| Brown | 4-10 | 19.7% |
| Brown | 5-9 | 24.8% |
| Brown | 6-8 | 20.0% |
| Brown | 7-7 | 11.7% |
| Columbia | 4-10 | 12.0% |
| Columbia | 5-9 | 21.1% |
| Columbia | 6-8 | 23.8% |
| Columbia | 7-7 | 19.1% |
| Columbia | 8-6 | 10.4% |
| Cornell | 5-9 | 7.2% |
| Cornell | 6-8 | 13.3% |
| Cornell | 7-7 | 23.0% |
| Cornell | 8-6 | 21.8% |
| Cornell | 9-5 | 18.2% |
| Dartmouth | 0-14 | 6.1% |
| Dartmouth | 1-13 | 19.7% |
| Dartmouth | 2-12 | 28.1% |
| Dartmouth | 3-11 | 25.0% |
| Dartmouth | 4-10 | 14.1% |
| Harvard | 9-5 | 9.1% |
| Harvard | 10-4 | 18.1% |
| Harvard | 11-3 | 26.8% |
| Harvard | 12-2 | 25.8% |
| Harvard | 13-1 | 13.3% |
| Penn | 5-9 | 12.5% |
| Penn | 6-8 | 20.7% |
| Penn | 7-7 | 23.3% |
| Penn | 8-6 | 18.9% |
| Penn | 9-5 | 11.2% |
| Princeton | 8-6 | 14.2% |
| Princeton | 9-5 | 21.7% |
| Princeton | 10-4 | 25.2% |
| Princeton | 11-3 | 19.6% |
| Princeton | 12-2 | 8.5% |
| Yale | 5-9 | 11.2% |
| Yale | 6-8 | 17.9% |
| Yale | 7-7 | 24.2% |
| Yale | 8-6 | 20.4% |
| Yale | 9-5 | 13.3% |
PROJECTED FINISH WITH TIES
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Brown | 0.3% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 23.8% | 33.6% | 7.6% |
| Columbia | 0.8% | 4.8% | 11.8% | 18.4% | 20.6% | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% |
| Cornell | 6.0% | 19.3% | 27.0% | 22.5% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| Dartmouth | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 5.9% | 18.5% | 73.3% |
| Harvard | 77.1% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penn | 2.8% | 10.3% | 20.2% | 23.5% | 18.9% | 16.0% | 7.1% | 1.1% |
| Princeton | 31.5% | 44.5% | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Yale | 3.2% | 12.2% | 23.5% | 23.3% | 19.2% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
PROJECTED FINISH WITHOUT TIES
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Brown | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 26.1% | 7.6% |
| Columbia | 0.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 2.9% |
| Cornell | 2.2% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Dartmouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 7.1% | 73.3% |
| Harvard | 59.9% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penn | 0.8% | 3.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Princeton | 16.9% | 29.0% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Yale | 1.0% | 4.5% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 0.7% |
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